Iran will not relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz without a conflict, according to Emma Salisbury, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. In an analysis given to Al Jazeera, she said Iran’s new maritime protocol signals the country’s firm stance on maintaining authority over the strategically vital waterway.

Salisbury explained that Iran views control of the Strait as a major bargaining tool, given its influence on the global economy and international trade in oil, fertilizer, and gas. She noted that if Iran implements its proposed toll system, ships paying the toll could face sanctions, creating what she described as a significant commercial risk.

She further warned that threats such as sea mines and missile attacks from Iran remain possible, though enhanced naval security could reduce some of these risks.