U.S. President Donald Trump has been accused by analysts of misleading himself over the Iran issue by creating a narrative detached from reality. Over the past two and a half months, Trump has repeatedly claimed that Iran is eager to sign a deal soon, while easing deadlines and downplaying Tehran’s provocations and ceasefire violations. On Thursday, he backed away from a threatened assault on Iran’s Kharg Island only hours after issuing the warning, instead citing progress in negotiations.

Critics argue that Trump’s reluctance to act decisively has emboldened Iran, prolonging both the conflict and the resulting economic strain. The situation is now approaching the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, potentially giving Iran political leverage. Even after an American Apache helicopter was downed in an Iranian attack, Trump responded dismissively on social media, calling it “not a big deal.”

Experts believe Trump’s flexibility and premature disclosure of his plans have strengthened Iran’s bargaining position. Rising inflation in the U.S. could further pressure Republicans ahead of the elections, forcing Trump to choose between renewed military engagement or accepting a weak deal to ease political tensions.