An analysis published on July 28, 2026 says statements from both the United States and Iran that they are prepared for a prolonged conflict have raised new questions about the war’s aims and strategy. It says President Donald Trump initially appeared to seek a rapid end to fighting, continued passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and avoidance of major disruption to global energy markets. The article argues that the current rhetoric makes a longer conflict appear more likely.

The analysis suggests Washington may have expected a quick outcome but adjusted its approach after Iran demonstrated greater resilience than anticipated. It cites Iran’s military capability, large territory, mountainous terrain, population and defense infrastructure developed under decades of sanctions. Drawing on the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan, it says the United States may be reluctant to launch another major ground operation and could instead pursue sustained economic, political and military pressure.

The article also questions whether Washington could tolerate a lasting risk around Hormuz, where existing alternative pipelines have limited capacity. It discusses a possible internationally supervised security zone and a broader coalition involving Britain, European allies and regional security partners. Turkey is described as backing diplomacy, energy security and a durable framework addressing all parties’ legitimate security concerns.