Shipping expert Lars Jensen has said that U.S. President Donald Trump’s announced blockade threat will likely affect only a very small number of vessels. According to Jensen, if the United States actually implements such a measure, only limited ship movements would be halted, and the overall impact on global shipping would remain minimal.

Jensen, the chief executive of Vespucci Maritime, explained that Trump’s warning to act against ships paying tolls to Iran would not bring major changes, as those vessels were already exposed to U.S. sanctions risks. He noted that few ships currently use that route, and even fewer pay tolls, meaning the measure’s reach would be narrow.

Jensen added that most shipping companies are expected to monitor the situation initially to see whether any temporary agreements emerge. If such arrangements occur, vessel traffic could gradually increase again. However, he did not confirm whether the route would become safe for navigation, emphasizing that the outcome depends on trust and the durability of any U.S.–Iran understanding.