A proposed cross-border gas pipeline between Bangladesh and Myanmar requires explicit approval from the Arakan Army, political analysts say, because the group controls much of Rakhine state and the entire border area between the two countries. The proposal gained renewed momentum after an August 2 meeting in Dhaka between Bangladesh’s power, energy and mineral resources minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud and Myanmar’s ambassador U Kyaw Soe Moe. Bangladesh formally expressed interest in importing natural gas from Myanmar’s offshore Shwe gas project by pipeline to Chattogram to address its growing energy shortage.

Regional experts said Myanmar’s junta government does not control the territory needed to implement such commitments. Analyst U Myo Kyaw said the Arakan Army controls about 90 percent of Arakan state, including the Bangladesh border area, making its approval essential for gas transport across the territory.

Since early 2024, the Arakan Army has established full control over key border towns including Buthidaung and Maungdaw, as well as Paletwa township in neighboring Chin state, placing cross-border transit corridors under its administration. Fighting remains intense around strategically important Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. DMG editor-in-chief U Aung Min Oo said the group could support the project if it brings direct local economic benefits and prospects for international recognition, while formal contact with Bangladesh remains limited.