The 30-year Ganges water-sharing treaty signed in 1996 between India and Bangladesh is set to expire in December 2026, and no formal renewal talks have begun. Indian Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh told parliament that discussions will start only after Bangladesh’s new government is formed. The agreement, originally signed by H. D. Deve Gowda and Sheikh Hasina, governs dry-season water distribution at the Farakka Barrage and has long symbolized bilateral cooperation.

Experts cited in the report warn that India may use the Farakka Barrage as diplomatic leverage, while Bangladesh seeks to link water, trade, and transit issues in negotiations. The political shift in Dhaka following Sheikh Hasina’s fall and the rise of a new BNP-led government has reshaped regional dynamics. West Bengal’s internal politics and environmental concerns over salinity and river flow further complicate renewal prospects.

Analysts suggest that failure to reach a new deal by December could intensify debates over sovereignty and regional economic interdependence, with both sides balancing strategic interests and domestic pressures.