A global energy crisis has emerged after the closure of the Hormuz Strait following attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, raising fears of a major collapse in air transport by May or June. The strait, which handles about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply, has been blocked, putting Asian and European countries at the greatest risk due to reduced jet fuel availability.

Market analysis firm Rystad Energy and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have forecast that flight cancellations could begin as early as May because of fuel shortages. The IEA warned in its monthly report that if Europe fails to replace at least half of its Middle Eastern oil imports, its reserves could fall to a critical 23-day level by June. OECD European countries, including EU members, the UK, and Norway, import over 30 percent of their jet fuel, most of which passes through the Hormuz Strait.

The European Commission stated that while total fuel depletion has not yet occurred, supply disruptions are now unavoidable. Spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Ikonen cautioned that if the situation remains uncontrolled, global air transport could face unprecedented paralysis starting in May.