Expectations for the upcoming ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan are low, with even the possibility that the meeting may not occur. The discussions are set to proceed under Tehran’s 10-point proposal rather than US President Donald Trump’s 15-point plan, signaling that Iran currently holds the upper hand. The ceasefire allows Iran to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and continue collecting transit fees, a concession that Washington appears to have accepted.

Iran’s government has portrayed the ceasefire as a victory, though internal voices warn it may have weakened deterrence by not securing a full end to hostilities. Tehran’s demands include recognition of its control over the strait, acceptance of uranium enrichment, lifting of all sanctions, withdrawal of US forces, and a ceasefire extending to Israel’s operations in Lebanon and Gaza. These terms are seen as difficult for Washington to accept in full.

Even if the talks fail, analysts suggest a fragile equilibrium could persist, with both sides avoiding a return to full-scale war. The United States may stay out of direct conflict while Iran maintains leverage over regional trade routes, creating a tense but stable status quo.