University of Chicago professor Robert Pape said US President Donald Trump has become trapped in an “escalation trap” over Iran, with very limited room to exit. In comments to Al Jazeera, Pape said US air and naval strikes may have delivered some immediate tactical successes but failed to achieve any long-term national objective. He argued that Iran has emerged from the conflict in a stronger position than before.

According to Pape, Trump faces two choices: accept Iran’s growing regional influence or intensify the conflict further. He said there is no third option beyond those two paths. His assessment frames the current situation as one in which military pressure has not produced the longer-term strategic outcome sought by the United States.

Pape warned that the limits of relying solely on air and naval power have already become clear. He said the situation could reach a point where Trump is compelled to consider a ground operation. With midterm elections approaching, Pape also suggested that Trump may seek a symbolic military victory.