After a Pakistani delegation arrived in Tehran, observers suggested the United States may be considering a second round of ceasefire talks with Iran. Despite more than 20 hours of discussions in Pakistan ending without resolution, the two-week ceasefire remains in place. However, President Donald Trump proposed blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil trade route, as part of a new strategy toward Iran.

The report outlines four possible scenarios for what could follow: a fragile ceasefire acting as a strategic pause; a 'shadow war' involving limited strikes and proxy activity; continued quiet diplomacy led by Pakistan and regional mediators; and a prolonged naval blockade aimed at crippling Iran’s oil exports. Analysts warn that mistrust, conflicting interpretations of ceasefire terms, and Israel’s potential involvement could heighten tensions.

The analysis concludes that the region has entered a “gray zone” where war and diplomacy coexist. Both sides appear to be balancing military pressure with limited diplomatic engagement, creating structural instability and uncertainty about the conflict’s trajectory.