Myanmar’s military junta has launched renewed offensives to reclaim Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army controls about 90 percent of the territory. The junta currently holds only three of 17 townships—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—but its grip remains weak. Backed by Chinese diplomatic and economic pressure that has weakened several rebel groups, the junta is preparing coordinated land, naval, and air assaults, particularly in southern and central Rakhine. Airstrikes have already intensified, causing civilian casualties and destruction of homes, schools, and religious sites. Analysts say the junta aims to secure Kyaukphyu, a key site for Chinese infrastructure projects, before expanding operations northward. However, logistical challenges, poor ground communication, and lack of local support may hinder progress. The ongoing blockade has devastated Rakhine’s economy, leading to food shortages, high prices, and widespread unemployment, while fears grow of mass displacement if fighting escalates further.