A US intelligence assessment has warned that even a large-scale ground military operation led by the United States may not succeed in toppling Iran’s current government. According to a Washington Post report, the evaluation by the US National Intelligence Council concluded that the likelihood of removing Iran’s ruling regime through such an offensive remains low.

The report also questioned earlier predictions from the Trump administration that a war could end within four to six weeks. Citing three sources familiar with the intelligence findings, the Washington Post said the assessment was prepared within a week of the joint US-Israeli attacks launched on February 28. It further noted that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the assault.

Additionally, the intelligence analysis found little chance that Iran’s fragmented opposition groups could seize power, describing that outcome as “unlikely.”