The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.5 percent for the 2026–27 fiscal year, according to its updated Asian Development Outlook released on Thursday. The forecast suggests a modest improvement from the estimated 3.7 percent growth in the previous fiscal year but remains significantly below historical levels. The ADB noted that high inflation, weaknesses in the banking sector, energy supply constraints, and global economic uncertainty continue to weigh on the country’s recovery.

The report attributes last year’s slower growth to high inflation, weak exports, stagnant private investment, rising energy costs, and adverse global conditions. It expects some positive effects this year from easing inflationary pressure, regulatory reforms, improved governance, and sustained remittance inflows. However, the ADB warned that recovery will remain slow due to structural challenges, including energy shortages, high production costs, and limited competitiveness.

The inflation forecast for 2026–27 has been raised from 8.5 to 8.8 percent, reflecting recent adjustments in fuel, gas, and electricity prices. The ADB also cautioned that escalating Middle East conflicts or rising global oil prices could further strain Bangladesh’s external balance and fiscal management.