Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered its fifth year, with the conflict causing massive destruction and loss of life but little territorial change. Recent data indicate Moscow’s military advances have slowed significantly, averaging about 70 meters per day near Pokrovsk and 23 meters near Kupiansk. In 2025, Russia captured roughly 1,865 square miles, only 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s total territory.

Observers argue that Russian claims of Ukraine’s imminent defeat do not align with the situation on the ground. Ukraine has reorganized its strategy and achieved limited counter-successes, reclaiming about 40 square miles in Zaporizhzhia and retaking the city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv region. However, the humanitarian situation remains dire, with over one million people suffering from power, heat, and water shortages amid subzero temperatures following Russian missile and drone strikes.

Despite continued Western support, Ukraine faces air defense shortages, making it difficult to repel Russian attacks. Analysts describe the war as largely stalemated, with Russia’s ambitions in Donetsk uncertain and Ukrainians showing no sign of surrender.