The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that crude oil production in the U.S. could decline slightly to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026, down 50,000 barrels from 2025. A sharp drop in active rigs and slower drilling activity are key factors behind this trend. Shale output, especially from the Permian Basin, is expected to decrease, though offshore production may rise slightly. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth is slowing, while rising supply may lead to increased global crude inventories.