An analyst from the American University of Rome, Andrea Dessì, stated that recent tensions between Iran and the United States demonstrate the fragility of the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending conflict. He warned that the agreement could collapse at any time, even as both sides share an interest in preventing the situation from escalating into a larger confrontation.

According to Dessì, similar incidents may recur over the next 30 to 60 days as negotiations continue, potentially shaping a new reality in the region. He noted that both Iran and the United States are motivated to show their capability to control and manage the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Dessì added that the positions of both countries regarding the Strait will play a crucial role in future talks. The rivalry over control of this vital waterway could also affect regional security, increasing the risk of conflict if tensions spiral out of control.