Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged as the long-term beneficiary of Iran’s war against the United States and Israel, using the global distraction to accelerate his domestic authoritarian consolidation. While international attention was diverted, Erdogan intensified crackdowns on opposition forces and strengthened Turkey’s global standing. Riot police recently stormed the headquarters of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) after its leader Ozgur Ozel was removed by court order, prompting clashes with supporters.

Analysts cited in the report say Erdogan is exploiting a favorable geopolitical environment created by the Iran conflict, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and declining Western influence. His government faces high inflation and waning popularity, prompting stronger control ahead of the 2028 elections. Meanwhile, Turkey has expanded its defense exports, signing deals with Iraq, Indonesia, and Portugal, and has become the world’s 11th-largest arms exporter.

Erdogan aims to turn Turkey into a major energy and trade hub while hosting a NATO summit in July 2026 from a position of greater strength. Experts warn that Western powers’ tolerance of democratic backsliding could embolden authoritarian consolidation and weaken alliance cohesion.