Ukraine is bracing for a potential shortage of US-made Patriot air defence missiles as Washington’s Middle Eastern allies use large quantities of the same systems to intercept Iranian attacks. Experts told Al Jazeera that Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to exploit the shortfall, which could occur within weeks, by intensifying missile assaults on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The Patriots, first deployed in Kyiv in 2023, have been crucial in intercepting Russian ballistic missiles, including the Kinzhal, but their limited supply and high cost have constrained Ukraine’s defences.

Analysts warn that the shortage highlights broader weaknesses in Ukraine’s protection of energy and transport infrastructure. Moscow’s strategy of using drones and decoy missiles to exhaust Ukrainian air defences has already proven effective. European and Israeli reluctance to release additional Patriot stocks further complicates Kyiv’s situation. Ukraine currently operates fewer than a dozen Patriot batteries, far below the 25 it says are needed.

While France and Italy’s SAMP/T systems offer some backup, their effectiveness against Russia’s modified missiles remains untested. Experts caution that Russia may soon launch large-scale raids to deplete Ukraine’s remaining missile reserves.