The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that global oil supply will decline by 3.9 million barrels per day throughout 2026 due to disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In its latest report, the agency said the stalemate in the region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, has led to a rapid depletion of global oil inventories.

According to the IEA, global oil demand is also expected to fall by 420,000 barrels per day this year. The agency noted that more than ten weeks after the start of the Middle East conflict, the continuing supply shortfall through the Hormuz Strait is driving inventories down at a record rate.

The report added that the ongoing deadlock and fast-declining reserves could signal a potential rise in oil prices in the near future.