A crucial local election in the United Kingdom on Thursday is expected to determine the political future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The vote, taking place in Ashton-in-Makerfield, could either ease pressure on Starmer or pave the way for his rival, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, to challenge his leadership. Burnham, a senior Labour Party figure, is contesting the seat with the goal of returning to Parliament and potentially replacing Starmer as prime minister.

Polls suggest Burnham has a strong chance of winning, though he faces stiff competition from the right-wing Reform UK party. Analysts say the outcome will likely decide whether Burnham’s path to 10 Downing Street opens or Starmer retains his position. Starmer, in power since July 2024, has faced mounting pressure following Labour’s poor performance in recent local elections, internal resignations, and controversies over policy reversals and appointments.

Despite declining popularity, Starmer has refused to resign, arguing that his previous electoral mandate remains valid. Voting began at 7 a.m. local time and will conclude at 10 p.m., after which counting will begin.