Analysts have questioned the Trump administration’s belief that military attacks could topple Iran’s ruling establishment. According to Al Jazeera, Maha Yahya, director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said there is no organized opposition group in Iran capable of taking control of the state. She warned that power could instead fragment among various ethnic, political, and social groups.

Yahya noted that the only declared opposition leader is the son of former Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who lives abroad. She dismissed the idea of a Kurdish-led uprising as unrealistic. In her assessment, Iran is more likely to face internal discord and instability in the coming days.

Yahya added that even if the fighting stopped immediately, Iran’s internal situation would remain fragile, and the post-conflict government in Tehran might intensify repression against dissenters.