The World Bank has warned that the Middle East war could put about 600,000 jobs at risk in Bangladesh and prevent roughly 1.2 million people from escaping poverty in 2026. It said higher fuel prices, gas shortages and supply-chain instability could disrupt industrial production, raise transport costs and increase prices of essential goods. The assessment comes as Bangladesh’s economy is already under pressure from high inflation, a weak banking sector, low investment and limited revenue capacity.

According to the World Bank’s June assessment, the number of people living in poverty in Bangladesh increased by an estimated 1.4 million in 2025. Without the Middle East war, around 1.7 million people could have risen above the poverty line in 2026, but that figure may fall to about 500,000 under current conditions. More than half of Bangladesh’s primary energy supply depends on gas, while domestic production has fallen about 15 percent since 2016.

Middle Eastern sources account for 60 to 65 percent of imported crude oil and 55 to 60 percent of LNG. LNG prices rose to $24-$28 per MMBtu, compared with $10-$12 before the war. The World Bank also cited pressure on fertilizer production, healthcare costs and private businesses facing frequent power outages.