Saudi Arabia is confronting a severe challenge following the United Arab Emirates’ sudden withdrawal from OPEC, as the ongoing Iran war disrupts crude exports across the Persian Gulf. The conflict has prevented Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members from using their spare production capacity, worsening the supply crisis. Crown Prince and Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman now faces pressure to stabilize the market while managing internal divisions within the oil alliance.

The UAE, previously OPEC’s fourth-largest producer and second in spare capacity after Saudi Arabia, had long expressed dissatisfaction with its production quota. Analysts note that the country’s departure exposes deeper rifts within OPEC, especially as Saudi Arabia’s decision-making has shifted from consensus-driven diplomacy to more unilateral actions. The geopolitical rivalry between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, intensified by conflicts in Yemen, has further strained cooperation.

Experts suggest that despite the current turmoil, the crisis could eventually strengthen OPEC’s unity and streamline its decision-making process once regional oil flows normalize.