Following Iran’s weakening after Israel’s military operations since October 2024 and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, Israeli leaders now see an opportunity to consolidate regional dominance. Analysts cited in the report suggest that Israel’s policymakers increasingly view Turkey as the next major obstacle to their ambitions, given Ankara’s growing influence in post-Assad Syria and its opposition to Israeli expansionism.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett described Turkey as a new Iran, accusing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of seeking to encircle Israel. Turkish analysts argue that Israel is developing a long-term strategy similar to its decades-long approach toward Iran. They note that Israel’s regional ambitions have expanded across Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Qatar, and Yemen, while Turkey perceives these actions as threats to broader regional stability.

Experts warn that direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey could emerge in Syria or the Mediterranean. However, Israel’s ability to act against Turkey is constrained by Ankara’s NATO membership and U.S. strategic interests. The rise of a Turkey–Egypt–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan alignment could further limit Israel’s regional dominance.