The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service announced on Wednesday that the likelihood of an extremely strong El Niño weather pattern forming later this year is increasing. Director Carlo Buontempo told AFP that all models had raised their forecasts between May 1 and June 1, indicating a higher probability of a strong or potentially record-breaking El Niño event.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that causes warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to global shifts in wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. According to the latest Copernicus update, 75 percent of participating global meteorologists expect sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific to rise by 2.5 degrees Celsius or more above average by November.

Historically, since the first major El Niño recorded in 1877–78, temperatures have exceeded the 2-degree Celsius threshold only three times—in 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16.