Iran’s military has retained significant strike capability as the conflict with the United States and Israel passed five months, highlighted by a recent Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan that killed three US service members. The strike was the first fatal attack on US troops at a base since March 1, and US officials have not released full details. Analysts say Iran’s attacks are becoming more precise and sophisticated, possibly aided by intelligence from Russia and China.

Security analysts cited in the report say US forward bases across the Middle East are vulnerable because many are designed to resist light rocket, mortar, or improvised attacks rather than large, high‑yield ballistic strikes. US air-defense systems such as Patriot and THAAD have been challenged by combined use of ballistic and cruise missiles, armed drones and decoys that can overwhelm or confuse defenses. Analysts also note Iran may not need to defeat US forces outright to achieve objectives; degrading US posture and inflicting political and humanitarian costs can be sufficient.