NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has warned that Russia could launch an attack on a NATO member state within the next five years. Speaking in Germany on December 11, Rutte said Moscow has already intensified covert operations against the alliance and urged members to prepare for a type of conflict reminiscent of past generations. His remarks underscore growing anxiety within NATO about Russia’s long-term intentions following its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The warning comes as U.S. President Donald Trump pursues diplomatic efforts to end the Russia–Ukraine war. Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, recently stated that Moscow has no plans to engage in war with Europe but would respond if provoked. European leaders remain skeptical, recalling similar assurances before the Ukraine invasion. Diplomats suggest that despite Trump’s mediation, current negotiations may ultimately favor Russian interests, prompting European allies to back Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s stance.

Analysts believe Rutte’s caution reflects NATO’s strategic reassessment amid uncertain peace talks and persistent hybrid threats from Moscow.