India’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level for the first time, according to official statistics cited in a report by Al Jazeera. The Sample Registration System (SRS) data show that the total fertility rate (TFR), which was about 3.3 in the early 2000s, has steadily declined over the past two decades. Experts warn that this trend could slow population growth and affect the country’s long-term economic structure.
Analysts attribute the decline to multiple social and economic factors, including increased female education and workforce participation, greater access to contraception, and rising child-rearing costs, especially in urban areas. Regional disparities are significant, with Bihar’s TFR at 2.9 and Delhi’s at 1.2. Economists caution that a shrinking working-age population could lead to labor shortages, reduced productivity, and pressure on social security systems as the elderly population grows.
The demographic shift may also influence India’s internal politics, particularly in the upcoming delimitation process that reallocates parliamentary seats based on population. Experts suggest India must prepare for an aging society through stronger health, pension, and social protection systems.
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