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Iran has temporarily closed sections of the Strait of Hormuz and conducted live-fire military drills amid escalating tensions with the United States. The move coincides with the deployment of the USS Gerald R Ford to the Gulf, marking one of the largest US military build-ups in the region since 2003. The strait, through which about 20 percent of global oil supplies and a fifth of global LNG shipments pass, is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Tehran’s actions served as a warning of the potential economic fallout if Washington proceeds with threats to strike Iran.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, roughly 20 million barrels of oil worth nearly $500bn transit the strait daily, with 84 percent of crude and 83 percent of LNG bound for Asia. Analysts told Al Jazeera that any closure would cause a major spike in oil prices, as 70 percent of OPEC+ spare capacity lies in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other exporters have limited alternative routes, while Asian economies such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea depend heavily on uninterrupted flows.

Experts warned that a prolonged disruption could trigger global inflation, raise production costs, and unsettle Gulf investment and development projects.

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