Global oil markets are facing heightened uncertainty as roughly 170 million barrels of Iranian crude oil stored at sea are expected to enter circulation following the recent easing of U.S. sanctions on Iran. Analysts cited by Reuters on Saturday said the oil is currently held on ships stretching from the Gulf region to Chinese waters. Consultancy Energy Aspects estimated the volume at 130 to 140 million barrels, equivalent to less than two weeks of Middle Eastern supply shortfall.

The Middle East supplies about 60 percent of Asia’s crude demand, but near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz this month has forced regional refineries to cut production and limit exports. Analysts warned that any instability in this key waterway directly affects global energy markets.

China has remained Iran’s main buyer since U.S. sanctions were imposed in 2018, importing about 1.38 million barrels per day last year. India, facing low reserves, is also exploring Iranian purchases but awaits clarity on payment terms and U.S. policy. Traders noted ongoing challenges over payment mechanisms and the use of older “shadow fleet” vessels for transport.