Analysts have warned that U.S. President Donald Trump may be heading toward another prolonged conflict with Iran, despite his earlier pledge to avoid new wars. The report describes how U.S. and Israeli strikes have failed to achieve Trump’s stated goals of regime change or halting Iran’s nuclear program. Instead, the fighting has disrupted the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and a ceasefire and diplomatic memorandum have both collapsed within a month.

Experts cited in the report, including Ali Vaez, Lawrence D. Freedman, Vali Nasr, Aaron David Miller, and Suzanne Maloney, argue that both sides view temporary agreements as tactical pauses rather than steps toward peace. They warn that without a clear political or diplomatic plan, the conflict could become another “forever war” similar to those in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. reliance on air and naval power, without ground deployment, is seen as a strategic limitation.

The analysis concludes that the Strait of Hormuz may no longer return to prewar conditions, and the U.S. might need to maintain a larger military presence in the Middle East to secure maritime routes, while Iran remains determined to sustain pressure.