Palestine supporters in the United Kingdom foresee a potential shift in the country’s Middle East and Israel policies as political changes loom. The rise of the Green Party in local elections, declining popularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and growing sentiment within the Labour Party to halt arms exports to Israel have intensified speculation. Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, recently won a by-election in Makerfield with 54.80 percent of the vote, positioning him as a leading contender to replace Starmer.

Polls show Burnham, aged 56, as the most popular Labour politician, while Starmer faces one of his lowest approval ratings. A survey by Medical Aid for Palestinians found that 87 percent of Labour members support ending trade with illegal settlements and 78 percent back a full arms embargo on Israel. Burnham has maintained a balanced stance toward both Israel and Palestine, calling for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid for Gaza while supporting Israel’s right to targeted operations under international law.

Analysts suggest that a leadership change could bring further policy adjustments, following Labour’s 2024 decisions to partially suspend arms exports to Israel and recognize Palestine as a state.