India faces severe economic and humanitarian risks from the ongoing Iran war and the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, despite not being directly involved in the conflict. The strait handles about one-third of global seaborne oil exports, and India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, relies on it for around 2.5 million barrels of crude oil daily. The disruption has already raised global fertilizer prices and threatens India’s agricultural production and food supply.

Nearly 90 percent of India’s crude oil demand is imported, and about half of its annual 9 million tons of urea comes from the Middle East, mainly Oman and Saudi Arabia. The closure of Hormuz has also disrupted liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar, affecting domestic fertilizer production. Rising fertilizer costs have pushed government subsidies to record levels, while reduced fertilizer use could lower crop yields and increase food prices, potentially driving millions into poverty.

If the conflict continues, India’s GDP growth could fall from 7 to 6 percent, with inflation and current account deficits worsening. Analysts say the crisis exposes India’s dependence on fragile supply chains and underscores the need for long-term food security reforms.