Political speculation has intensified in Bangladesh over why BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman has not yet returned home despite no visible legal or security obstacles. His recent Facebook post hinted that the decision to return is not entirely under his control, sparking debate about possible external influences. The government has publicly stated it has no objection to his return, while BNP leaders have avoided elaborating beyond Rahman’s own remarks. Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors involving the United States and India may be affecting the situation, recalling past controversies such as the 'minus two' formula and earlier commitments made during the 2007–08 caretaker government period. With Khaleda Zia’s health deteriorating and national elections approaching, questions persist about who holds sway over Rahman’s return and whether he will lead the BNP’s campaign once the election schedule is announced.