Iran has gained the ability to effectively close access to the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses, according to recent US intelligence assessments cited by CNN. The reports suggest that the ongoing conflict has given Iran’s leadership a powerful new tool to influence the global economy. A memorandum of understanding to reopen the key waterway is expected to be signed on Friday as part of renewed nuclear talks, but intelligence sources warn that Tehran has already demonstrated its capacity to block the strait and could do so again.

Sources familiar with the intelligence review told CNN that Iran’s wartime success in targeting Gulf energy infrastructure has emboldened it to use such asymmetric capabilities in the future. The United States had to engage in close negotiations with Iran to reopen the strait, reflecting Tehran’s strengthened bargaining position. A senior US official said Iran would only benefit from the agreement if it keeps the strait open and complies with its terms.

Other sources cautioned that any future attempt to close the strait could have self-destructive consequences, while discussions continue on whether allied nations could help secure the waterway once reopened.