The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel could bring the global economy dangerously close to recession if the war continues and energy prices remain high. In its World Economic Outlook report released in Washington on April 15, 2026, the IMF projected that global growth could fall below 2 percent in 2026, a level seen only four times since 1980. The report noted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of war had driven up fuel prices, and a failed peace effort in Pakistan has prolonged the crisis.

The IMF said that if oil prices average 110 dollars per barrel this year and rise to 125 dollars by 2027, global growth will slow further, with inflation possibly reaching 6 percent. Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that such conditions would feel like a recession for most people, with rising unemployment and food insecurity in some countries. The report also warned that the UK would be among the hardest hit developed economies, while Iran, Iraq, and Qatar could see sharp contractions this year.

If the conflict eases within weeks and energy exports normalize by midyear, global growth could recover to 3.1 percent in 2026, though still below earlier forecasts.