U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Iran that time is running out to reach an agreement over its nuclear program. He threatened that if talks fail to progress, the United States could launch a more severe attack than before. Iran has rejected the threat outright. A BBC analysis outlined several possible outcomes if Trump orders a military strike on Iran.

The report suggests that U.S. forces could carry out limited, precise strikes targeting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij bases, and nuclear facilities, potentially leading to democratic transition. Another scenario envisions Iran’s current regime surviving but forced to alter its policies, including reducing support for regional armed groups and easing domestic repression. Other possibilities include the regime’s collapse leading to military rule, retaliatory Iranian attacks on U.S. bases and allies in the Gulf, or even the sinking of U.S. warships.

The analysis also warns of potential nationwide chaos in Iran, with risks of civil war and ethnic conflict that could destabilize neighboring countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia.