John Mearsheimer, an international relations theorist and professor at the University of Chicago, said Iran’s ballistic missiles have demonstrated high effectiveness in attacks on US military bases and facilities in the Middle East. In comments published on August 11, 2026, he said this capability would be a major reason for a reduced US military presence in West Asia.

Mearsheimer said neither the United States nor other countries in the region have an effective solution for defending against Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. He asserted that their attacks had severely damaged or completely destroyed nearly all bases in the Middle East. He also said evidence showed US forces had withdrawn from bases in the Persian Gulf region, first to Jordan, then to Israel, and ultimately to Europe.

According to Mearsheimer, the United States is unlikely to return to the region even after the ongoing conflict ends because of the continuing missile threat and Persian Gulf countries’ reluctance to host US forces. He described current US policy as ensuring a “devastating defeat” and said Iran had resisted what he called a US-imposed war through geographic advantages, military strategy and support from Russia and China.