The World Bank Group has warned that global energy prices could increase by up to 24 percent in 2026 due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report attributes the projected rise to attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about 35 percent of the world’s crude oil shipments. The report notes that global oil supply has already fallen by around 10 million barrels per day, creating immediate pressure on international energy markets.

According to the baseline forecast, the average price of Brent crude oil could reach 86 dollars per barrel in 2026, up from 69 dollars this year. If the conflict continues or supply chains fail to recover quickly, prices could climb as high as 115 dollars per barrel. The report also predicts a 31 percent rise in fertilizer prices, with urea potentially increasing by 60 percent due to higher natural gas costs and supply uncertainty.

The World Bank projects that developing economies may face average inflation of 5.1 percent next year, rising to 5.8 percent in a worst-case scenario, while their economic growth could slow to 3.6 percent.