The South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) has warned that Bangladesh’s economy could face negative impacts if global energy markets become unstable due to the ongoing military aggression by the United States and Israel against Iran. In a statement issued on Thursday, SANEM said rising energy prices could reduce GDP growth, exports, imports, garment sector output, and agricultural production, while inflation would increase and real incomes decline.

According to SANEM’s analysis, if global crude oil prices rise by about 40 percent and LNG prices by 50 percent, Bangladesh’s real GDP growth could fall by around 1.2 percent. Exports might drop by 2 percent and imports by 1.5 percent. Consumer prices could rise by up to 4 percent, and real wages might decline by 1 percent, reducing purchasing power. The report also warned that a prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait could cause a severe energy crisis, as 72 percent of Bangladesh’s imported LNG comes from Qatar and the UAE.

SANEM noted inconsistencies between government austerity and energy rationing policies and their implementation. It recommended boosting renewable energy investment, infrastructure development, tax-free equipment supply, and low-interest loans to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and stabilize the economy in the long term.