The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that escalating conflict in Iran and continued volatility in global energy markets could push the world economy to the brink of recession. According to the IMF, repeated shocks in the energy sector may reduce global growth from the current 3.1 percent to 2 percent.

The IMF outlined three possible scenarios. In the best case, if the war remains short-lived, oil prices could normalize to an average of 82 dollars per barrel in the second half of 2026. Under a moderate scenario, if the conflict drags on, oil prices may hover around 100 dollars this year and fall to 75 dollars in 2027, bringing global growth down to 2.5 percent from 3.4 percent in 2025. In the worst case, oil could reach 110 dollars per barrel in 2026 and 125 dollars in 2027.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said current supply disruptions and the lack of a clear path to peace make the moderate or adverse scenario more realistic. The organization also warned that the crisis could further fuel global inflation.