Oil analysts are increasingly warning that crude prices could surge toward $200 a barrel as the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupts global energy flows. Since the February 28 attacks on Iran, Brent crude has climbed above $100 and reached nearly $120 by March 9. An Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gasfield on March 18 and subsequent Iranian attacks on regional energy facilities have further tightened supply. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, only limited shipping continues, and emergency stockpile releases have failed to offset a daily shortfall estimated at 10 million barrels.

Experts told Al Jazeera that the duration of the strait’s closure will determine how high prices climb. Some Middle Eastern crude benchmarks have already exceeded $150, and Iran has warned that $200 oil is possible. The International Monetary Fund estimates that sustained price increases would raise global inflation and slow growth. While some analysts see $200 as plausible, others argue that rising production from countries such as the US and Brazil, along with alternative pipelines, could moderate prices.

If the disruption persists, analysts caution that oil above $150 would heavily strain the global economy, affecting inflation, employment, and industrial supply chains.