Iran has ended its long-held policy of 'strategic patience' following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026. The attacks, which also targeted Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, prompted Tehran to demonstrate its new doctrine of 'active and unprecedented deterrence' by launching missiles and drones across the Gulf. Within days, Iran struck Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, and Cyprus, signaling a major escalation in regional hostilities.

The shift follows years of managed restraint by Iran, which had relied on a network of allies including Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and the Popular Mobilisation Forces to deter aggression. However, Israeli operations against Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the fall of Syria’s al-Assad government, and the 12-day-war in 2025 eroded Iran’s deterrence framework. The destruction of Iran’s consulate in Damascus in 2024 marked the first major breach of its restraint policy.

The latest escalation has drawn in Gulf states such as Qatar and the UAE, exposing the fragility of their balancing strategies. Regional unrest is spreading, with protests in Bahrain and Iraq, and reports of US encouragement for Kurdish offensives against Iran, suggesting a widening and destabilizing conflict across the Middle East.