The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected in its latest World Economic Outlook report that Bangladesh’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) could exceed India’s in 2026. According to the report, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP is expected to reach 2,911 US dollars, compared to India’s 2,812 dollars. The IMF attributes this potential shift to Bangladesh’s sustained economic growth, steady export earnings, and slower population growth. However, the report also notes that India may regain the lead in 2027.

Economists have cautioned against overinterpreting the forecast, emphasizing that a temporary lead in per capita GDP does not necessarily reflect stronger overall economic performance. Former World Bank economist Zahid Hossain explained that exchange rate fluctuations can significantly affect GDP comparisons in dollar terms. Selim Raihan, executive director of SANEM, added that Bangladesh’s economy remains under pressure from inflation, investment stagnation, and global instability, including the Middle East conflict.

The IMF publishes the World Economic Outlook twice a year, offering short- and medium-term forecasts of global economic trends. Economists noted that such projections are subject to change due to external factors and methodological limitations.