Saudi Arabia has been drawn into a difficult strategic dilemma amid the Iran war after trying to remain outside the conflict that began when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28. Following recent drone attacks, Riyadh jointly struck Iran-backed Iraqi militias with the United States. The report says Saudi Arabia is now facing attacks from three directions and must decide whether to build deterrence through retaliation or pursue diplomacy to reduce tensions.

The conflict pits Iran, the IRGC, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah against a US-led coalition supported in various ways by several Gulf Arab states and Jordan. Saudi Arabia does not want direct involvement, as a prolonged war could jeopardize Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan to reduce reliance on oil and attract foreign investment.

After Iran obstructed movement through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia began exporting oil via the Red Sea. Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and Red Sea shipping, described as a response to Saudi strikes in Yemen, have also put oil transport through the Bab al-Mandab Strait at risk. Despite seven years of war against the Houthis, Saudi Arabia did not defeat them, and faces renewed threats from the south and Iraqi-based militias in the north.