President Donald Trump faces a political and strategic crisis over the continuing conflict with Iran, according to the report published July 27, 2026. Trump launched a full-scale military operation on February 28 to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and change its government, but the stated goals remain largely unmet after five months. Despite extensive military force, he has not brought Iran under the desired level of control and is hesitant about launching another major operation.

The war has unsettled international energy markets, while the United States has failed to control oil prices and shipping has been disrupted on key routes including the Strait of Hormuz. Prolonged exchanges of attacks have also reduced stocks of missile-defense systems, raising concern over US military capacity. Internal divisions have emerged in the administration, and some political allies favor ending the conflict quickly. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll found 29 percent support for Trump’s handling of the war.

The report identifies three main options for Trump: escalating military strikes, tightening economic sanctions, or declaring victory and withdrawing. Escalation could cause civilian casualties and new security risks, while sanctions offer no guarantee of quick results. Withdrawal could prompt criticism that his stated objectives were not achieved.