Prediction markets tracking U.S. political outcomes saw a sharp rise this weekend in bets suggesting President Donald Trump could be removed from office under the 25th Amendment. The surge followed escalating conflict with Iran and widespread criticism of Trump’s recent social media comments, which drew attention to his handling of the crisis. According to Newsweek, trading volume increased on Kalshi, a regulated prediction platform, as users speculated on whether cabinet-level action might be taken to declare the president unfit for duty.

Kalshi’s contract titled “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump’s presidency?” saw the price of “Yes” shares climb from 28.6 percent to 35.1 percent, the second-highest level since his second term began. The market initially opened in January 2025 at 15 percent “Yes.” The rise coincided with controversy over Trump’s posts about Iran, including threats targeting civilian infrastructure. Senator Chris Murphy urged the cabinet to consider invoking the amendment, calling Trump’s remarks “completely, utterly unbalanced.”

Analysts expect Kalshi’s market to remain volatile as long as global tensions and domestic criticism persist, with prices likely to fluctuate alongside developments in the Iran conflict.