Bangladesh is confronting simultaneous challenges to its energy security, foreign reserves, and interest rate policy as the Middle East conflict disrupts global energy flows. The ongoing war, uncertainty over Qatari LNG supplies, and drone attacks on Saudi energy facilities have placed the country’s import-dependent energy system under renewed strain. The article identifies three critical policy questions: whether to raise fuel prices, how to manage reserves, and if lowering interest rates is justified during wartime instability.

The analysis warns that direct energy price hikes could trigger a double inflation trap, urging instead a targeted pricing reform to reduce consumption and support efficient production. It highlights the need for strategic reserve management through prioritizing essential energy imports, curbing luxury imports, allowing managed currency depreciation, and securing long-term energy payment plans. The author argues that lowering interest rates during uncertainty may not boost investment but could encourage capital flight and misuse of cheap credit.

The piece concludes that Bangladesh’s stability depends on coordinated energy, monetary, and fiscal policies. It recommends forming a national crisis team of experts to guide sustainable decisions beyond political popularity.

Global energy markets saw sharp price increases after Iran launched attacks on U.S. and Israeli-linked facilities across the Middle East on Monday. The strikes targeted Saudi Aramco’s oil refinery and Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, forcing both to halt production. Additional attacks on fuel tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about 20% of global oil and gas shipments, further disrupted supply and drove prices higher.

Brent crude rose by 10% to over $82 per barrel before easing to $79, while U.S. crude climbed 7.6% to $72.20. Qatar Energy suspended LNG operations after the attack, pushing European gas prices up by about 45%. Stock markets worldwide fell amid uncertainty, with London’s FTSE 100 down nearly 1%, France’s CAC 40 down 1.6%, and Germany’s DAX down 1.7%. Airline shares also dropped as Middle Eastern airspace closures disrupted routes.

Analysts warned that prolonged conflict could further raise oil prices beyond $100 per barrel, potentially affecting inflation and interest rates. Gold prices rose 2.3% as investors sought safe assets.

Complaints have emerged in Rajshahi city over irregularities in the distribution of low-cost products by the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) during the holy month of Ramadan. Hundreds of buyers have been forced to stand in long queues under the sun, with many returning empty-handed while some individuals reportedly received products multiple times. TCB trucks, scheduled to arrive at 10 a.m., often reached between 11:30 a.m. and noon, worsening the situation.

Field visits to several city points revealed that demand far exceeded supply, with both lower- and middle-income families seeking affordable essentials. Each TCB truck sells a package of five items for Tk 590, including edible oil, lentils, sugar, chickpeas, and dates, for 400 customers per truck—double last year’s allocation. However, allegations persist that certain groups collect products repeatedly to resell at higher prices, and that dealers favor acquaintances.

TCB’s regional deputy director Atiqur Rahman acknowledged attempts by some groups to exploit the system and create disorder. He said letters have been sent to law enforcement and city authorities seeking assistance to restore order and ensure genuine consumers receive the benefits.

The Teknaf land port, a key import-export hub in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar, has remained inactive for ten months due to internal unrest in neighboring Myanmar. Cross-border trade through the Naf River has been suspended, leaving local traders and importers in severe financial distress. Thousands of port workers have lost their jobs and are struggling to survive without income. Stakeholders are waiting for effective government action to restore operations at the port.

According to port business associations, millions of taka remain stuck with Myanmar traders, and large quantities of goods stored in warehouses are rotting. The general secretary of the Teknaf C&F Agents Association said the prolonged closure has caused extreme financial strain, making it difficult to pay bank installments, office rent, and staff salaries. Workers dependent on port activities have fallen into debt and are unable to support their families.

The government is also losing significant revenue, as imports of timber, dried fish, ginger, and onions have stopped. The disruption began after Myanmar’s Rakhine State came under control of the Arakan Army, halting vessel movement on the Naf River. No timeline has been announced for resuming trade, though business groups believe diplomatic efforts could help reopen the port.

A bumper harvest of sweet potatoes has been reported in Madarganj upazila of Jamalpur this season. Favorable weather, low production costs, and strong market prices have led to increased farmer profits and enthusiasm. Compared to paddy, sweet potatoes have yielded three times more profit, prompting many farmers to shift to this crop.

According to the Upazila Agriculture Extension Department, sweet potatoes were cultivated on 365 hectares of land this season, nearly double last year’s 190 hectares. The main varieties grown include BARI Sweet Potato-8, BARI Sweet Potato-4, and improved local types. Twelve farmers received demonstration plots of the BARI-8 variety to encourage wider adoption. Farmers across several unions are now busy harvesting their crops.

Upazila Agriculture Officer Habibur Rahman said favorable weather and regular technical support contributed to the strong yields. With an estimated 9,200 tons produced this season, sweet potatoes have become a promising cash crop in the region due to their nutritional value and growing market demand.

Bangladesh Bank is considering a reduction in its policy interest rate following the appointment of new governor Mostakur Rahman. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet at noon on Wednesday to decide on a possible 50 basis point cut from the current 10 percent rate. Officials said the move could lower lending rates across banks and support the governor’s plan to create one crore new jobs.

An unnamed central bank official explained that the policy rate had been kept high for a long time to control inflation, which has eased but remains above target due to supply-side issues. The previous governor, Ahsan H. Mansur, had maintained the policy rate at 10 percent in the last monetary policy announcement. Inflation peaked at 11.38 percent in November and declined to 8.58 percent in January.

Economists and bankers cautioned that inflation remains elevated and that any rate cut should be limited and carefully implemented to avoid undermining recent progress.

Bangladesh Bank’s latest report shows that default loans in the banking sector dropped by Tk 872.98 billion during October–December 2025, bringing the total to Tk 5.57 trillion, or 30.60 percent of total loans. At the end of September, defaults stood at Tk 6.44 trillion, or 35.73 percent. The decline followed large-scale loan rescheduling and policy support introduced ahead of the national election.

Officials said banks typically reduce defaults in the final quarter of the year through intensified recovery efforts and by taking advantage of central bank rescheduling facilities. Under these measures, Tk 26,114 crore in defaulted loans were regularized. The interim government, after taking office, revealed the true scale of defaults previously understated under the former Awami League administration and later introduced initiatives to reduce them.

Sector-wise, state-owned banks held Tk 1.46 trillion in defaults, private banks Tk 3.89 trillion, foreign banks Tk 29.84 billion, and specialized banks Tk 185.46 billion. Provision shortfalls also fell sharply to Tk 1.91 trillion in December from Tk 3.44 trillion three months earlier, indicating improved balance sheet conditions across the sector.

Bangladesh’s export earnings declined by 3.15 percent in the first eight months of the 2025–26 fiscal year, according to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). From July to February, total export income stood at 31.91 billion dollars, down from 32.94 billion dollars in the same period of the previous year. The sharpest fall occurred in February, when export earnings dropped to 3.50 billion dollars, a 20.81 percent decrease from January and 12.03 percent lower than a year earlier.

The EPB data show that the apparel sector, which contributes 80.85 percent of total export earnings, experienced the most significant contraction. Exports of agricultural products, leather goods, and home textiles also fell, while pharmaceuticals and jute products saw modest growth. Economists and exporters attributed the downturn to additional tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and weakening global demand following joint U.S.-Israeli attacks in Iran.

Experts warned that the ongoing geopolitical tensions could further depress export performance in the coming months, potentially deepening economic challenges for Bangladesh.

India and Canada have signed a long-term agreement for uranium supply, announced after a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in New Delhi. The deal, valued at around three billion US dollars and lasting ten years, was formally exchanged on Monday morning, followed by a joint press conference confirming the agreement.

Canada, the world’s second-largest uranium supplier, has been providing uranium to India since 2013. The newly signed contract will be executed by Cameco, one of the world’s leading uranium fuel producers. According to BBC reports, India is seeking alternative energy sources such as uranium, oil, gas, and coal amid pressure from the United States to reduce energy imports from Russia.

During Carney’s visit, the two countries also signed cooperation agreements in defense, education, and energy sectors. Both leaders indicated that India and Canada are moving toward finalizing an economic cooperation agreement within the year, following nearly fifteen years of free trade discussions.

Bangladesh’s Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir stated that even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed due to ongoing tensions among Iran, Israel, and the United States, there will be no immediate crisis in food or fuel supplies for Bangladesh. He said the government has sufficient reserves to prevent any negative impact on market prices. The minister made these remarks on Monday after meeting Indian Ambassador Pranay Kumar Verma at the Secretariat in Dhaka.

Muktadir added that the government is closely monitoring the international situation and that Bangladesh has successfully managed similar challenges in the past. He noted that if the strait remains closed for a long time, ships would have to travel around the Cape of Good Hope, raising transportation costs and potentially affecting prices, though such a situation has not yet arisen. The government has prepared for essential goods and energy supplies and will observe developments over the next few days.

During the meeting, both sides discussed strengthening bilateral trade, digital infrastructure, and technology cooperation. India’s ambassador reaffirmed his country’s commitment to deepening trade ties and normalizing visa operations soon.

The European Union’s Gas Coordination Group will meet on Wednesday to assess the impact of the spreading conflict in the Middle East on gas supplies. An EU spokesperson confirmed the meeting on Monday, noting that the group will review the situation following recent disruptions in energy production.

The meeting follows QatarEnergy’s announcement to halt liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial facilities after Iranian drone attacks on those sites. The production halt has led to a sharp rise in European gas prices, reportedly increasing by about 50 percent. The Gas Coordination Group includes representatives from EU member state governments and is responsible for monitoring gas storage and supply security across the bloc.

The group also coordinates emergency measures during supply crises, and the upcoming meeting is expected to focus on evaluating potential risks to Europe’s energy stability and possible response strategies.

European gas prices surged by nearly 50 percent after QatarEnergy announced a suspension of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following an attack in the Middle East, according to Al Jazeera. Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that the front-month contract at the Netherlands’ Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub rose by 14.56 euros to 46.52 euros per megawatt hour, equivalent to about 15.92 dollars per MMBtu. Earlier in the day, prices had already climbed about 25 percent before the production halt announcement pushed them higher.

Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president of gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie, said that any disruption in LNG supply could intensify competition between Asia and Europe for available cargoes. Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, warned that if the market begins to price in a prolonged disruption of Qatari LNG supply, TTF prices could rise to between 80 and 100 euros per MWh.

The British April contract also increased by 40.83 pence per therm to 119.40 pence, while Asia’s Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) index jumped nearly 39 percent to 15.068 dollars per MMBtu.

Bangladesh’s Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir met with British High Commissioner Sarah Cook in Dhaka on Monday to discuss strengthening bilateral trade relations and exploring new investment opportunities. The meeting took place at the minister’s office in the Secretariat. Both sides emphasized enhancing cooperation for sustainable economic growth and mutual benefit.

During the discussion, the commerce minister highlighted the need for British investment to modernize Sylhet’s tea industry and increase production, noting the sector’s potential for job creation and tourism development. He also urged UK investors to consider investing in fertilizer factories that face gas shortages and in Bangladesh’s growing information and communication technology sector.

High Commissioner Sarah Cook reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to advancing the long-standing trade partnership and expressed interest in supporting capacity building for officials in the ministry’s trade negotiation pool. She also indicated British investors’ interest in sectors such as tea, seafood, leather processing, export diversification, and light engineering.

Bangladesh Railway will start selling advance train tickets for the upcoming Eid-ul-Fitr from Tuesday, March 3. On the first day, tickets for March 13 journeys will be available. According to the railway schedule, tickets for March 14 to 19 will be released sequentially from March 4 to March 9.

All tickets for Eid travel will be sold exclusively online this year. To make the ticket purchase process easier for passengers, Bangladesh Railway has decided that tickets for intercity trains operating in the western region will be available from 8 a.m., while tickets for trains in the eastern region will go on sale from 2 p.m.

The decision aims to streamline the ticketing process and manage the high demand for train travel during the Eid holiday period.

Bangladesh’s Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdur Muktadir has expressed commitment to further strengthen and expand bilateral trade relations with India. He made the remarks on Monday, March 2, after a courtesy meeting with the Indian High Commissioner at the Secretariat in Dhaka. The Indian envoy also emphasized India’s interest in deepening ties with Bangladesh’s new government and enhancing people-to-people connections.

During the meeting, both sides discussed mutual cooperation in digital infrastructure and technology exchange to boost the existing trade volume of around 11 billion dollars, including 9.5 billion in imports and 1.5 billion in exports. They also focused on reopening closed border haats and improving land border infrastructure. India showed interest in using the newly built land port at Sabroom, while discussions were held on making operations at Benapole and other ports more efficient.

The minister added that Bangladesh has applied to the United Nations to extend its LDC graduation timeline and that the process is ongoing. He also noted that while there are concerns about possible disruptions in the Hormuz Strait, there is currently no threat to essential imports or fuel supplies.