India faces severe economic and humanitarian risks from the ongoing Iran war and the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, despite not being directly involved in the conflict. The strait handles about one-third of global seaborne oil exports, and India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, relies on it for around 2.5 million barrels of crude oil daily. The disruption has already raised global fertilizer prices and threatens India’s agricultural production and food supply.

Nearly 90 percent of India’s crude oil demand is imported, and about half of its annual 9 million tons of urea comes from the Middle East, mainly Oman and Saudi Arabia. The closure of Hormuz has also disrupted liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar, affecting domestic fertilizer production. Rising fertilizer costs have pushed government subsidies to record levels, while reduced fertilizer use could lower crop yields and increase food prices, potentially driving millions into poverty.

If the conflict continues, India’s GDP growth could fall from 7 to 6 percent, with inflation and current account deficits worsening. Analysts say the crisis exposes India’s dependence on fragile supply chains and underscores the need for long-term food security reforms.

Farmers in Juri upazila of Moulvibazar district are set to receive farmer cards as part of a government pilot project covering 11 upazilas in 10 districts. The initiative aims to distribute 21,500 cards in the first phase, with 834 farmers from Phultala Union in Juri selected to receive them. The cards will be provided to landless, marginal, and small farmers to help them access annual cash incentives for agricultural activities, fisheries, livestock, and input support.

Moulvibazar district has 127,994 hectares of cultivable land, of which 93,596 hectares remain fallow annually. Officials expect that the farmer card program will encourage cultivation on previously unused land, boosting local food production. Farmers have welcomed the initiative, calling it a landmark step for agricultural development. They noted that the government has already waived agricultural loans and launched canal excavation programs to improve irrigation.

According to the district agriculture extension office, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will inaugurate the farmer card program on April 14, marking its official rollout in the selected upazilas. The department expects the scheme to expand gradually across all upazilas in the district.

The Indian government has urged citizens not to engage in panic buying of fuel, asserting that the country has sufficient reserves of crude oil, petrol, and diesel. The appeal came as long queues formed at fuel stations across India despite official assurances. The government’s statement followed a sharp rise in global oil prices triggered by Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sujata Sharma, a senior official at India’s Petroleum Ministry, stated that there is no shortage of fuel and asked the public not to believe rumors. However, reports from various parts of the country indicated that many people continued to crowd fuel pumps, fearing potential shortages. One commuter told AFP that he had to wait nearly an hour to refuel.

The government’s reassurance aims to stabilize public sentiment and prevent unnecessary strain on fuel distribution networks as global energy markets remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has warned that the global trading system is facing its most severe disruption in 80 years. She made the remark during the opening session of the WTO ministerial conference, emphasizing the scale of the challenges confronting the global economy.

The warning comes as global energy markets experience turmoil following U.S.-Israeli attacks in Iran. Tehran has nearly halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route that handles about 20 percent of the world’s energy supply. This disruption has intensified instability in global energy flows and heightened concerns about broader economic impacts.

The WTO chief’s statement underscores the growing strain on international trade and supply chains, with energy insecurity adding to existing global economic pressures.

Conflicting reports have emerged over ceasefire talks and rising tensions between Iran and the United States, raising fears of a major escalation. Analysts warn that if the situation worsens, global oil prices could surge, especially if the US deploys forces to control the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a strong Iranian response. Kepler senior crude oil analyst Muyu Xu said oil prices could reach around 120 dollars per barrel, marking a critical turning point in the conflict.

The Middle East remains highly uncertain, and a near-term drop in oil prices appears unlikely. Asian nations could face growing energy shortages, leading to economic and political instability. Japan still holds significant oil reserves, but countries such as the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia have comparatively limited stocks. Rising fuel prices in these markets could lead to real shortages, with potential disruptions to fuel supply and airline operations.

If the conflict extends into mid or late April, several Asian countries could experience severe impacts, including social unrest and humanitarian crises.

Global oil prices climbed on March 26, 2026, as uncertainty grew over whether the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel would ease. Brent crude rose 1.5 percent to 98.72 dollars per barrel, while US benchmark WTI increased 2 percent to 92.16 dollars. The market reaction followed Iran’s rejection of a US-proposed ceasefire plan that included 15 points, while President Donald Trump delayed his previously scheduled military action.

Asian stock markets opened lower as investors reacted to the geopolitical tension. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.8 percent, South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 3.3 percent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 1.9 percent. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict has created pressure across energy and equity markets.

Analysts noted that if the war continues, Asia could face rising energy shortages and broader economic instability, reflecting the region’s sensitivity to disruptions in global oil supply.

Several bikers in Cumilla have alleged that Master & Sons Filling Station at Alekhar Char Bishwaroad area refused to sell octane for less than Tk 200. The incident occurred around noon on March 26, 2026, during a period of fuel shortage across the country. Witnesses said only a few of the district’s 81 filling stations had octane available. According to official data, 66,000 liters of octane were supplied to Cumilla on March 24, including 9,000 liters to Master & Sons.

One biker said he wanted to buy Tk 170 worth of octane but was told the minimum sale was Tk 200. Another traveler from Chattogram to Dhaka reported being denied a Tk 150 purchase. In response, station manager Jahangir Alam stated that customers should be allowed to buy any amount and that he would look into the matter. He denied allegations of under-measurement.

Cumilla’s Additional District Magistrate and fuel monitoring committee head Zafar Sadiq Chowdhury said customers are allowed to buy any amount and that any irregularities by filling stations will be investigated.

Japan has begun releasing fuel from its national reserves to mitigate the impact of the Middle East war and stabilize supply. The release, equivalent to 30 days of fuel, started from the Kikuma National Petroleum Stockpile in the western city of Imabari. According to the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, the fuel has been transferred via pipeline to a nearby commercial refinery.

This move follows a similar release from private sector reserves, which began ten days earlier and covered the equivalent of 15 days of supply. The coordinated action reflects Japan’s effort to maintain energy stability during a period of heightened geopolitical tension affecting global oil markets.

The measure underscores Japan’s reliance on strategic reserves to cushion potential disruptions in fuel supply as the conflict in the Middle East continues to influence global energy dynamics.

In Patuakhali’s Kalapara upazila, hundreds of watermelon farmers are facing significant financial losses this season despite satisfactory yields. The crisis stems from a shortage of wholesale buyers, declining market demand, and unfavorable weather conditions. Many farmers who leased land from distant areas for commercial cultivation now fear they will not recover their investments.

Local growers such as Ferdous Talukder, who cultivated 64 bighas of land at a cost of about 2.1 million taka, reported being forced to sell watermelons at nearly half the expected price due to high transport costs and weak demand. Other farmers, including Md. Riaz and Oliullah, described similar difficulties, warning that delays in sales could worsen their losses. Rain before Eid and lower-than-usual temperatures in Falgun and Chaitra months have also reduced fruit quality and demand.

According to the Upazila Agriculture Office, watermelons were cultivated on 4,447 hectares involving around 3,000 farmers, with a sales target of 4.04 billion taka. Officials estimate that nearly half of the growers may incur losses if market conditions do not improve soon.

After the United States and Israel began military action against Iran in late February, Tehran announced the closure of the Hormuz Strait, a key route for 20 percent of the world’s crude oil shipments. The move triggered a global energy shock, with oil prices surging and Asian economies hit hardest as 90 percent of their crude and gas imports pass through the strait. Governments across Asia have imposed energy-saving measures such as work-from-home policies, shorter workweeks, and temporary closures of universities.

In India, gas shortages have crippled Gujarat’s ceramic industry and forced restaurants in Mumbai to shut down or reduce operations. The Philippines declared a national emergency as transport workers and farmers struggled with rising fuel costs. Thailand urged citizens to conserve energy, while Sri Lanka, still recovering from a financial crisis, introduced midweek holidays to curb fuel use. Myanmar enforced alternate-day driving rules to save fuel amid ongoing internal conflict.

Across the region, citizens reported long fuel queues, reduced incomes, and growing uncertainty. Analysts and local voices warned that if the conflict continues, Asia’s energy crisis and social instability could deepen further.

Global oil prices increased on Thursday after Iran’s foreign minister declared that Tehran currently has no intention of holding talks with the United States. Following his statement, Brent crude rose by 1.6 percent to 103.85 dollars per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.4 percent to 91.61 dollars.

Iranian official Abbas Araghchi told state media on Wednesday that there had been no direct discussions with Washington, though messages were exchanged through intermediaries. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump said Iranian leaders were afraid to admit that talks were taking place.

The development comes amid heightened geopolitical tension, with analysts warning that prolonged conflict could intensify energy instability in Asia if the situation continues.

Larry Fink, chairman and chief executive of BlackRock, has warned that the global economy could face a severe recession if international oil prices rise to 150 dollars per barrel. Speaking to the BBC on Wednesday, he said that a prolonged war involving Iran could drive oil prices higher and have far-reaching effects on the world economy. The ongoing Middle East conflict has already caused significant volatility in financial markets as people try to anticipate future energy costs.

Fink stated that the fate of the global economy now depends on Iran’s role in the conflict. He outlined two possible scenarios: if the war ends and Iran is reintegrated into the international community, oil prices could stabilize or even fall below pre-war levels; but if the conflict continues, prices could remain between 100 and 150 dollars per barrel for years, triggering a deep global downturn. He urged nations to use their resources efficiently and accelerate the search for alternative energy sources.

BlackRock manages about 14 trillion dollars in assets and is considered one of the world’s largest investment firms.

Farmers across northern Bangladesh are struggling to irrigate their Boro rice fields due to a severe diesel shortage caused by the ongoing energy crisis. In Rajshahi, Natore, Naogaon, and Chapainawabganj, irrigation pumps, tube wells, and agricultural machinery have stopped operating, leaving farmers deeply worried about potential crop losses. Many report being forced to buy diesel at inflated prices, paying 15 to 20 taka more per liter than the government rate.

Field reports from Rajshahi’s Godagari and Naogaon’s Durgapur show diesel prices rising from 102 to 120 taka per liter, with some farmers unable to find fuel even at 150 taka. The Department of Agricultural Extension set a target of cultivating 352,000 hectares of Boro in the Rajshahi region, where 21 percent of irrigated land depends on diesel-powered pumps. Experts urge prioritizing agriculture in fuel distribution and suggest subsidies similar to electricity to ease farmers’ costs.

Officials from the Department of Agricultural Extension deny receiving complaints, claiming irrigation remains normal nationwide. However, farmers warn that prolonged shortages could severely disrupt irrigation and threaten national food security.

Bangladesh is struggling to manage a worsening fuel supply crisis triggered by the ongoing Middle East war and rising global oil prices. Despite government assurances of adequate reserves, long queues persist at petrol stations, and dealers report receiving only half of their required petrol and octane. The government earlier introduced and then withdrew a rationing system, claiming the situation had normalized. However, conflicting statements from ministries, distributors, and fuel station owners continue to create public confusion.

Energy experts attribute the crisis to a lack of coordination among government departments, state-owned enterprises, and private distributors. They argue that the government failed to take timely, unified action after the outbreak of the conflict, which has disrupted global supply chains. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had warned of severe global shortages and issued ten recommendations, but experts say these were not considered by the authorities.

Experts urge the government to prioritize essential sectors such as agriculture, promote fuel-efficient practices, and encourage public transport use. They warn that ignoring the crisis could deepen its impact on the economy and daily life.

International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Secretary-General John Denton has warned that the world is heading toward the most severe industrial crisis in recent memory, driven by the ongoing United States-Israel war in Iran. Speaking on Wednesday in Yaoundé, Cameroon, Denton said the current energy crisis is far more serious than the oil shock of the 1970s, with global industries facing unprecedented disruption.

According to Denton, the crisis extends beyond soaring energy prices. Severe shortages of gas and other essential raw materials are crippling and displacing industrial production worldwide. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has halted the supply of fertilizers and agricultural inputs, threatening to drastically reduce crop yields in the next harvest season and endangering global food security.

Denton emphasized that the global trade environment is being redefined by conflict and geopolitical tensions. He called for a strong and effective multilateral trade system to help overcome the crisis.