A US intelligence assessment has warned that even a large-scale ground military operation led by the United States may not succeed in toppling Iran’s current government. According to a Washington Post report, the evaluation by the US National Intelligence Council concluded that the likelihood of removing Iran’s ruling regime through such an offensive remains low.

The report also questioned earlier predictions from the Trump administration that a war could end within four to six weeks. Citing three sources familiar with the intelligence findings, the Washington Post said the assessment was prepared within a week of the joint US-Israeli attacks launched on February 28. It further noted that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the assault.

Additionally, the intelligence analysis found little chance that Iran’s fragmented opposition groups could seize power, describing that outcome as “unlikely.”

Iran has vowed to retaliate after Israel carried out severe attacks on its oil refinery and a water purification facility. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated on social media that the United States committed a serious crime by attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island, disrupting water supply to 30 villages. He warned that targeting Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences, asserting that the United States set this precedent, not Iran.

According to Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tehran, Mohammad Vall, the attacks have caused widespread concern in Iran. He noted that when Iran speaks of setting a precedent, it may be considering a similar response. Tehran views Gulf countries as supporters and instigators of aggression against Iran, raising questions about whether Iran might target desalination facilities in the Gulf.

The report added that such an escalation could create a dangerous situation, as Gulf nations depend on desalination plants for about 90 percent of their water supply.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesperson Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naini has claimed that the country’s armed forces can continue intense warfare for at least six months at the current pace. The statement was reported by Iran’s semi-official news agency and comes amid ongoing hostilities involving the United States and Israel.

According to AFP, Naini’s assertion directly contradicts recent remarks by US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly described the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran as highly successful. Earlier this week, Trump declared that the United States would win the war by a wide margin and claimed to have destroyed what he called Iran’s “evil empire.”

The IRGC remains one of Iran’s most powerful and influential institutions, extending its reach beyond military and intelligence operations into politics, education, and the economy, according to the report.

After one week of ongoing war in Iran, the humanitarian crisis is worsening rapidly. According to the report, more than 1,300 people have been killed in the conflict so far. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) stated that approximately 100,000 people have been displaced as a result of the fighting.

UNHCR said it has been receiving a large number of calls and messages from people seeking emergency assistance since the conflict began. Many families are leaving their homes in search of safety, moving from Tehran and other regions to different areas of the country.

UN officials have warned that if the war continues, the humanitarian situation could deteriorate further and the number of displaced people may rise quickly.

Israel continued its attacks on Iran for the second consecutive week, marking the first time that strikes targeted Tehran’s oil storage and refinery facilities. A massive blaze erupted at one of the capital’s refineries following the assault, with flames visible across the city. The Israeli military stated that it had struck several Iranian fuel depots, while Associated Press footage showed the night sky over Tehran illuminated by widespread fires.

Iran’s state media blamed both the United States and Israel for the attacks, which also caused fires in multiple parts of the capital. The affected refinery reportedly supplies fuel to Tehran and northern provinces. On social media platform X, the Israel Defense Forces claimed the targeted sites were used by Iranian authorities to distribute fuel to various military entities.

The incident adds to rising regional tensions, as reports also noted Israeli strikes in Lebanon and flight suspensions by Oman Air following the escalation.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to intensify military strikes on Iran, declaring through his social media platform Truth Social that Iran would be hit very hard. The warning came on the eighth day of the ongoing war, during which U.S. and Israeli forces carried out extensive attacks across Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed Trump’s call for unconditional surrender, asserting that Iran would never bow down. He also apologized to Gulf neighbors and pledged not to attack them, provided their territories are not used for assaults on Iran.

The conflict has spread across the region, with Israel launching new airstrikes on Tehran and Isfahan, and Iran responding with ballistic missile attacks on Israel and strikes on U.S. bases in Bahrain. Explosions were reported in Dubai and Manama, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz and Kurdish positions in Iraq. The Iranian Red Crescent reported thousands of civilian structures hit since February 28.

Reports also indicated that Russia has been supplying Iran with intelligence on U.S. targets, while Washington approved emergency arms sales to Israel. Analysts cited by U.S. media suggested that even large-scale attacks are unlikely to collapse Iran’s leadership structure.

The United States, in coordination with Israel, has launched a full-scale military operation against Iran, targeting the country’s supreme leader and senior officials. The offensive, which also coincides with the reported abduction of Venezuela’s president and his wife, has been described as a clear violation of international law, the UN Charter, and state sovereignty. The escalation marks a sharp departure from earlier US policies that emphasized limited engagement and withdrawal from prolonged Middle Eastern conflicts.

The report notes that under Donald Trump’s second term, Washington’s foreign policy has turned more aggressive, with actions suggesting attempts at regime change in multiple countries. Iran has retaliated with strikes on US and Israeli military sites, creating a cycle of attacks that threatens regional stability. Some Arab states have sided with the US, while Iran stands largely isolated, and calls from China, Russia, and the UN for restraint have been ignored.

Analysts warn that the conflict could disrupt global oil routes through the Strait of Hormuz, drive energy prices sharply higher, and trigger humanitarian and economic crises. The article concludes that military power alone cannot ensure stability without political compromise and regional unity.

Iran has entered the second week of intense fighting following a joint US-Israeli assault that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and over 40 senior officials. Despite expectations in Washington and Tel Aviv of Tehran’s quick surrender, Iran continues to resist, launching missile and drone attacks on Israeli and US targets across the Middle East. The conflict, which began on February 28, has destabilized the region and disrupted global energy markets after Iran restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Security analysts cited in the report describe the war as a strategic gamble by the US and Israel that has instead strengthened Iran’s resolve. Experts note that Iran’s strategy focuses on prolonging the conflict to exhaust its adversaries economically and militarily. The country’s large missile and drone arsenal, along with regional allies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, has enabled sustained operations.

International reactions have been critical. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the war illegitimate, while Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned against turning Iran into a proxy battlefield. Analysts suggest the conflict could become Washington’s most perilous campaign in decades.

U.S. President Donald Trump has blamed Iran for a deadly bombing at a primary school in Minab, southern Iran, that killed at least 165 people. Speaking to reporters at Dover Air Force Base on Saturday, Trump dismissed suggestions that the United States was involved in the attack, asserting, “It was Iran.” He also said he had no indication of Russian involvement or evidence that Russia was assisting Iran.

Trump further commented on Kurdish forces, stating that he did not want Kurdish fighters to enter Iran. He added that the U.S. goal was to see a president in Iran who would not lead the country into war.

The bombing in Minab has sparked widespread international attention and debate over who was actually responsible. Discussions and disputes continue among various parties regarding the true perpetrators of the attack.

U.S. President Donald Trump has blamed Iran for a deadly bombing at a primary school in Minab, southern Iran, that killed at least 165 people. Speaking to reporters at Dover Air Force Base on Saturday, Trump dismissed suggestions that the United States was involved in the attack, asserting, “It was Iran.” He also said he had no indication of Russian involvement or evidence that Russia was assisting Iran.

Trump further commented on Kurdish forces, stating that he did not want Kurdish fighters to enter Iran. He added that the U.S. goal was to see a president in Iran who would not lead the country into war.

The bombing in Minab has sparked widespread international attention and debate over who was actually responsible. Discussions and disputes continue among various parties regarding the true perpetrators of the attack.

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has officially denied reports that Iranian forces captured several American soldiers. A CENTCOM spokesperson on Sunday described the claim as entirely false and baseless, according to Al Jazeera. The statement came after the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council alleged that Iranian security forces had detained multiple US troops, a claim that quickly drew international attention.

CENTCOM sharply criticized the Iranian statement, calling it another example of deception by Iran’s leadership. The spokesperson said the allegation reflected a pattern of misinformation from Tehran. The exchange of claims and denials added to existing tensions between the two countries, which have frequently accused each other of hostile actions in the region.

The report did not specify where or when the alleged incident was said to have occurred, leaving key details unclear.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused U.S. President Donald Trump of undermining Tehran’s recent peace overture to neighboring countries. In a post on social media platform X on Sunday, Araghchi said President Masoud Pezeshkian had expressed goodwill toward reducing regional tensions, offering that Iran would not attack any neighbor unless its territory, airspace, or waters were used for attacks against Iranians.

Earlier the same day, President Pezeshkian had assured that Tehran would not target any country unless it initiated aggression. However, Araghchi stated that Trump “almost immediately killed” Iran’s positive message to its neighbors. Shortly after Pezeshkian’s statement, Iran reportedly came under multiple attacks and responded with retaliatory strikes.

According to Tehran, the counterattacks targeted U.S. military installations located in neighboring Gulf states. The developments mark a sharp escalation following Iran’s attempt to ease tensions through diplomatic assurances.

US President Donald Trump stated that by launching a war against Iran, the United States has benefited the entire world. He described the progress of the US military operation as an extraordinary success, rating it 15 on a scale of 0 to 10. Trump added that the war against Iran is not only for the Middle East but also a service to the whole world.

Commenting on the casualties from US and Israeli attacks in Iran, Trump said those killed were 'very sick people.' According to Iranian authorities, more than 1,330 people have been killed so far in the joint strikes by the United States and Israel. The report cited Al Jazeera as the source of these statements.

Trump further declared that the war would continue until Iran’s leadership and power are destroyed, signaling an extended military campaign with no immediate end in sight.

Iran has issued a warning that any US ship entering the Persian Gulf will be targeted and sunk. The statement came from an Iranian military spokesperson as the country continues retaliatory strikes following joint US-Israeli attacks. The warning underscores rising hostilities in the region, particularly around the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The threat coincided with US President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US Navy would escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had previously cautioned that American or allied vessels navigating the waterway could be attacked, a stance that has already heightened regional tensions.

The situation reflects a deepening confrontation between Iran and the United States, with both sides signaling readiness for further escalation in the Gulf region.

Babashikh Hosseini, Secretary General of the Khabat Organization of Iranian Kurdistan, said there is a strong possibility that Iranian Kurdish fighters based in Iraq could launch a ground operation inside Iran. He told Al Jazeera that while no offensive has begun yet, planning has been ongoing for a long time and the current situation appears more favorable for action.

Hosseini explained that a final decision has not been made, but the group is likely moving toward initiating such an operation. He confirmed that the United States has reached out to them through various channels, though no direct meetings have taken place. According to him, the U.S. inquiries focused on possible approaches toward Iran’s ruling system and potential future cooperation.

He added that any operation would require weapons, explosives, and modern equipment, as their current resources are outdated. Hosseini noted that discussions with intermediaries and other Kurdish figures have occurred, and direct engagement with the U.S. might happen when operational circumstances become clearer.